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My first analysis

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by balakumarn, Nov 16, 2012.

  1. balakumarn

    balakumarn New Member

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    Hi all,

    New to the forum here. I'm still reading the pdf guidance from Shabbir and i've enjoyed it so far. From whatever i've read thus far, i tried to apply on a stock and see and get your thoughts and valuable guidance. I arbitrarily picked this stock up: ABG Shipyard. Find the chart in the below link:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ABIRLANUV.NS&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=m20%2Cm50%2Cb%2Cm100&a=&c=

    Since the trades have been closer to the upper bollinger band and the simple moving averages are in favor and since it appears to have broken out from its earlier positions, does it mean it will do well in the near future? Also if all of that was true, what is a good exit point and stop loss for this?

    Excuse if none of the above made sense :)

    Thanks
    Bala
     
    balakumarn, Nov 16, 2012
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  2. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    No you made lot of sense and let me share my views about ABG Shipyard

    http://chartink.com/stocks/abgship.html

    First if you look at one year chart of this stock it has been going down since Feb 2012 to Sep 2012 and that would suggest a down trend in this stock.

    In Oct, this stock shows some sign of going no where and fall has stopped with 300 being the low.

    After hitting low of 300+, the stock shows bouncing from 360 multiple times.

    Stock is not able to cross 400 though hitting that high thrice.

    So now looking at such patterns it clearly suggests that there was a downtrend in the stock and then it is consolidation and 400 being big resistance and so I would leave this stock to consolidate between 300 and 400 before applying Bollinger Bands or Moving averages.

    First you should understand if the trend is up or not and then comes other things for going long.

    I hope it helps you in further analysis
     
    shabbir, Nov 16, 2012
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  3. balakumarn

    balakumarn New Member

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    Thanks Shabbir. It sure does help looking at the chart from that perspective. The link you posted had some parameters chosen. Is that by default or something you consciously chose and are there reasons for choosing a moving average of 10 and 21.

    Thanks
    Bala
     
    balakumarn, Nov 16, 2012
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  4. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    The link I posted as some default parameters by the site owners and nothing to do with my analysis but that site has simpler chart interface and so I prefer it.
     
    shabbir, Nov 16, 2012
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