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Do you agree that a crash in the market is coming?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by shabbir, Aug 29, 2021.

  1. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    On YouTube, everyone is predicting a market crash coming with data. I am not talking about any tom dick or harry but some of the smartest investors in the world have to say that.

    From his personal portfolio, Bill Gates sold or cut his positions in many companies, including Amazon, Alphabets, and even from Berkshire Hathaway.



    Ray Dalio, one of the smartest investors of America, predicts that the amount of money that the FED has printed in the past year can lead to serious corrections in the US.



    Valuations are over the moon in the US. An example of over-exuberance is Uber which is still to make profits has a market cap of $100 Billion.

    (Similarly, Zomato which is yet to make profits has a market cap of one lakh crore).

    From the low of 2020, the S&P 500 has doubled without any significant correction. As per all the top investors, when there is no correction the market gets into a bubble pretty soon.

    What are your views on the same?
     
    shabbir, Aug 29, 2021
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  2. Suresh_Sinha

    Suresh_Sinha Active Member

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    Yes, I do agree with some of the views. However, those are related to the US but then we live in a connected world.

    What I think is, if the market doesn't correct from here for 10% or so, then we will have a bubble for sure and it is a matter of time when it just poops.
     
    Suresh_Sinha, Aug 29, 2021
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  3. nirajshah

    nirajshah Champion

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    I don't think so Indian market is in a bubble as yet. I think we are starting a new growth journey and it should continue for another 3 to 4 years for sure.
     
    nirajshah, Aug 29, 2021
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  4. sethuramcbe

    sethuramcbe Responder

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    Nope I don’t share the same view

    rule 1 : invert always invert

    when everyone think market will tank it will not , that’s not the way it works

    rule 2 : valuations and results
    Many small and mid caps are making good results and doing capex with internal accruals , for e.g deepak nitrite moved away from single products to multi, ingrevia is still undervalued

    bubble will always be there Ona sector , to me I believe in India and China plus 1 added more fuel

    also good the new generation of enterpreneurs are exciting

    xelpmoc for eg, IEX as a energy platform etc

    so yep there would be downtime for sure but preparing mentally for that from day 1 is the key
     
    sethuramcbe, Aug 29, 2021
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  5. dhumalabhishek

    dhumalabhishek New Member

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    Thanks Shabbir, Videos are really helpful to understand current market sentiments.
    However, as a long term investor my job is only to stick to my asset allocation. I just don't care whats going to happen. If market corrects, great opportunity, if not, meh.

    Whats your take on asset allocation? and risk mitigation in investing journey?
     
    dhumalabhishek, Aug 29, 2021
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  6. 1sreerajvs

    1sreerajvs Member

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    Yeah I agree with the views but I like to stay with my holdings also its a no trade zone for me.
     
    1sreerajvs, Aug 29, 2021
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  7. akshaybhagwat

    akshaybhagwat New Member

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    more watery, bigger the bubble. this time bubble should be bigger. as many people (including me) are expecting/waiting for the bubble(thinking it is a bubble) to burst, it won't. when the last one also gets FOMO then it will. ;)
     
    akshaybhagwat, Aug 29, 2021
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  8. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    My view is, we are starting to create very high valuations in many pockets of the market. Eg DMart (Discounting centuries worth of earnings - Stock PE of 200+)

    Slowly the bubble will be formed if the market keeps doing what it has been doing. The it will be a matter of time when the bubble poops. I see it to be a little far away.

    However, if we get a correction in the market of 10% or more, the over valuations will adjust and then things can be quite normal.
     
    shabbir, Aug 30, 2021
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  9. emailsaravanans

    emailsaravanans Active Member

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    @shabbir, Good point of view and Thanks for summarizing the point. Either of the ones should be happening....
     
    emailsaravanans, Aug 31, 2021
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  10. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    The pleasure is all mine.
     
    shabbir, Sep 1, 2021
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