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3 to 6 months view on Fiberweb India

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sameerkshah8, Oct 26, 2017.

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  1. sameerkshah8

    sameerkshah8 New Member

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    Can experts help me with the 3-6 month fundamental view on Fiberweb India stock. Currently firm is under going CapEx, In spite of delivering good quarterly result and gradual EPS increase price seems to be stagnated/range bound.
    Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

    Apologies for posting fundamental query on technical board. Have got same thread on fundamental board as well. Feel free to reply there

    PN : I have holding in the stock

    Thanks..
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2017
  2. nirajshah

    nirajshah Champion

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  3. sameerkshah8

    sameerkshah8 New Member

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    Point taken. 3-6 month general view would also be
    appreciated. Need views on company's CapEx plan
     
  4. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Numbers look ok but for the last 5 quarters the promoters are selling their stake in the company and has come down from 66% to 49%. Need a very good explanation for it.
     
  5. sameerkshah8

    sameerkshah8 New Member

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    Appreciate Shabbir you taking out time and responding to the query promptly.

    On the issue of decline in promoter stake over last 5 qtrs, I too was worried about the same. However, after doing little research on net and going through transcript of management con call, interview on CNBZ, found below details. Seems like actual transcript screenshot


    [​IMG]

    I did collate promoter’s stock holding information for last 11 qtrs and following is the result


    [​IMG]


    1. The ones marked in yellow seems to be net seller over last few qtrs..

    2. Seth family whom they claim are the main/core promoters are either maintaining or have increased their share

    3. If we go by the explanation provided by Mr Seth “acting in concert with the promoters”, we can leave out Sulochana devi Agarawal and Abhishek Agrawal, but what concerns me is reduction in holding by Gayatri pipes which seems to have Mr, Seth and their family members on the board of director as per internet (Not much info is available though)

    4. Additionally, couple of month back firm has allocated 18 lakh shares on preferential basis to non-promoter group to fund their CapEx. Equity dilution would surely decrees the promoter holding

    5. Order books seems to be pretty good

    6. Recently stock has been recommended by CNBZ & Moneyctrol

    7. There is a Bank of Baroda positive report on the stock

    8. Unfortunately stock has tanked 9 % today

    9. I guess their consolidated EPS for FY17-18 is somewhere around Rs 15 and expected to rise further in next 3-4 qtrs once CapEx kicks in, hence with industry PE of 20(conservative) stock seems to be pretty undervalue. Your views are highly appreciated

    10. Looking at the current trend of the stick I am little worried If I am missing something or interpreting incorrectly


    Apologies for long post. Your views/advise would be greatly appreciated


    Thanks,

    Sameer
     
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  6. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Sameer, you missed the attachment or somehow the forum screwed it up. Upload again so I can look into it.

    Point 6 and 7 is pointless. If someone recommends to you so you can make money, I never take that.

    Point 5. Order book is BS. Go with execution. Punj Lloyd always announces each order they get but can't execute them good enough often.

    EPS isn't very good parameter when we have an equity dilution and sales growth and cash flow growth is important. They have that. If you have done the research on management, good to go but it isn't a 3 to 6 months play. Investment is atleast for 3 years.
     
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  7. bnnarayana

    bnnarayana Contributor

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    I completely agree with Shabbir, Financial Leverage and Price to Earning are on bad shape and trend is techincialy trend is down, because of the momentum the price is fluctuating.

    Sent from my Le X526 using DIY Technical Analysis mobile app
     
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  8. sameerkshah8

    sameerkshah8 New Member

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    Thanks appericiate..

    Sent from my Redmi 3S using DIY Technical Analysis mobile app
     
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